Team Overload

Overview

In April of 2022, the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act (EVIDA) took effect in the Philippines, unleashing electric vehicles (EVs) into our everyday city streets. While EVs are not particularly new, mainstream pioneering models such as those from Tesla have historically been priced higher than traditional gas-based vehicles, making them more of a luxury than a practical alternative for many. However, as this emerging technology advances toward economies of scale — and public awareness increasingly embraces climate change and energy sustainability — manufacturers and institutions are beginning to regard EVs as the next logical step in the evolution of automobile transport. From new players like BYD to established giants like Toyota, today’s EV market is not only more diverse, but also increasingly affordable. This begs the question: with their lower upfront cost, are EVs now more cost-effective than traditional gas cars or even Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)?

Background

Republic Act No. 11697, otherwise known as the Electric Vehicles Industry Development Act, took effect on April 15, 2022. It was enacted to reduce the country's reliance on imported fossil fuels, support clean energy, and foster industrialization. It provides incentives for electric vehicle purchasing and ownership such as the following:

• exemption from number coding schemes²
• discounts for the Motor Vehicle User's Charge (MVUC) for 8 years³
• priority registration of special EV license plates³
• various other tax incentives

---

References: 1 , 2 , 3

Problem

Since EVs recharge through wall sockets while gas cars refuel at station pumps, a method of directly comparing cost-effectiveness between them may not be immediately intuitive. Still, EVs are frequently marketed to be more sustainable than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, leading many to the generally accurate assumption that EVs are more “fuel” efficient than ICE cars. However, the consensus is not as clear when comparing EVs to Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), with HEVs themselves also being marketed for their fuel efficiency. Instead of relying solely on an electric motor or an ICE, HEVs use both — typically the electric motor at lower speeds with the ICE supporting at higher speeds. Some HEVs are refueled solely through gasoline, with the ICE simply charging the battery that powers the electric motor; others can be both pumped or charged, offering even greater flexibility. This can lead to the perception that HEVs enjoy the best of both worlds, utilizing either technologies only for their ideal use cases.

This evolves the question: as electric vehicles steal the spotlight, are hybrid vehicles secretly the more practical pick for savings-oriented drivers?

How do HEVs compare against fully electric vehicles in terms of cost-effectiveness? Perhaps there are scenarios where gasoline itself becomes significantly more economical than electricity — for instance, during periods of higher electricity demand and rates, like during the dry season in the Philippines. Considering the current limitations in public EV charging infrastructure within the Philippines, our cost comparison will focus on home-based EV charging using Meralco rates versus the cost of refueling HEVs at gasoline stations within the National Capital Region (NCR).

Research Questions

1. Are there specific months where using a gasoline car is more cost-effective than an electric car charged at home? If so, which months?
2. What are the projected trends in Meralco electricity rates and gasoline prices from now until 2026?

Hypothesis

• Null: There is no significant difference between the time of the year and the price of gas and electricity for a car to drive 1 km under ideal driving conditions.
• Alternative: There is a significant difference between the time of the year and the price of gas and electricity for a car to drive 1 km under ideal driving conditions.

Methods

Data Preprocessing

Most of the Meralco data had already been cleaned by Team R.B.C, hence we only needed to preprocess the more recent Meralco Rates. We dropped unnecessary columns in the dataset and kept the most relevant ones such as the Total Bill per kWh.

The NCR Pump Prices data from 2020 to 2023 does not contain the summary information unlike the more recent datasets. Hence we first converted the entire table into a CSV. This gave us the raw data of gas prices from the cities in the NCR. Unfortunately, some of the weeks in the dataset were missing. Thus, we interpolated the missing weeks such that each price entry was within 10 days from each other. Afterwards, we summarized the data in these CSV files to keep consistent with the summarized data from 2024 and 2025. Finally, we aggregated the entries to be by month in order to be on par with the Meralco rates. To address missing common price data in earlier gas dataset entries, we opted to calculate an average price using the minimum and maximum recorded prices. This average then served as our reference point for the overall comparison.

Data Visualization

We plotted the datasets of the NCR Gas Prices and Meralco Rates and showed the corresponding regression line. To compare overall fuel efficiency, we analyzed the average city driving efficiencies of the top 10 ICE, HEV, and EV cars in the Philippines. We primarily used manufacturer-claimed figures for individual car fuel efficiency, with source details available in our dataset sheets. The following boxplot illustrates the fuel efficiency distribution for each vehicle category.

Hypothesis Testing

We used the Kruskal-Wallis Test to check for seasonality of the datasets. This is a non-parametric test that compares the medians of two or more groups of data to determine if at least one of the medians are different from the others. In this case, we applied it to the gas prices, meralco rates, and the difference in cost/km from using an average HEV compared to an average EV. We checked for seasonality by months, seasons (dry and wet), and years.

Results

Cost Comparison: EV vs. HEV per Kilometer

Combining our data, the overall comparison highlights the average cost to drive one kilometer with an electric vehicle (EV) versus a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV).

To provide context for the trends in gas and electricity prices, we've also included major events from 2020 to 2024. For instance, the sharp decline in gas prices starting in April 2020 likely correlates with the Luzon ECQ lockdown and reduced vehicle traffic. Similarly, the significant increase in gas costs around March 2022 may be attributed to the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War. Finally, the notable drop in electricity costs in June 2024 can be explained by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Order issued in direct response to the recent surges days with high heat index.

Hypothesis Test Results

Meanwhile, our hypothesis test revealed statistically significant yearly seasonality in the data, while the monthly and by season (dry and wet) seasonality were not statistically significant. Hence, we fail to reject the initial null hypothesis, suggesting that the time of year significantly influences the cost difference between HEV and EV usage.

Seasonality	Dataset	H Statistic	P Value
Season	Gas Avg Price	0.4232	0.5154
Season	Meralco Rates	0.0055	0.9411
Season	Gas VS Electricity Cost/km Difference	0.7869	0.3750
Month	Gas Avg Price	1.7292	0.9992
Month	Meralco Rates	1.1338	0.9999
Month	Gas VS Electricity Cost/km Difference	2.9410	0.9915
Year	Gas Avg Price	45.4962	3.135e-09
Year	Meralco Rates	48.6689	6.8455e-10
Year	Gas VS Electricity Cost/km Difference	35.0650	4.5046e-07

Machine Learning for Prediction

We used Meta's Prophet forecasting model to create the time series forecasts for gas and electricity. For both datasets, we decided to exclude the 2020 to 2022 data as this period's pandemic conditions could skew the results. The Prophet model was initialized with yearly seasonality set to true. We focused on predicting the prices up until the end of 2025.

The results from the gas predictions indicates a seasonal dip as January approaches, followed by a climb until June. The overall forecast suggests a downward trend in gas prices from 2022 to the end of 2025.

Comparing the results of the regression line from 2020 to 2024 compared to the gas predictions indicates two possible views:

1. A regression line fitted to our data from 2020 to 2024 indicates an increasing trend.
2. On the other hand, the Prophet forecasting model projects a decreasing trend in gas prices for the period of 2022 to 2025. This difference may suggest a shift in the expected long-term trajectory that the forecasting model is identifying.

Focusing on the predictions for the Meralco rates, the drop on June 2024 due to the ERC order could have heavily influenced the prediction to assume that another sudden price drop might happen in June 2025. Overall it shows that there is an upward trend from 2022 to the end of 2025, with the increase slowing down by July 2023.

Putting the prediction results to the comparison graph for gas vs electricity cost per km, we see that it electricity still remains cheaper up to the end of 2025.

Conclusion

Limitations and Further Study

At present, since the study selected only the top 10 gasoline, HEV, and EV cars in the Philippines, further research can explore a more diverse and larger set of automobiles to have more generalizable results. Additionally, it would be better to be able to have a more uniform source for fuel efficiencies since at present, the study relied on the manufacturer. Future explorations may even consider calculating costs beyond just fuel efficiency, such as accounting for average travel speed.

Future studies can even go further and incorporate other costs into consideration such as buying price or maintenance cost in order to better inform Filipinos on the potential financial benefits or drawbacks. For example, while EVs may be more cost efficient, would the price difference be significant enough for Filipinos to decide against buying? How long would it take for the EV cost efficiency to cover the cost of the buying price difference?

Wrapping Up

While HEVs may pose certain benefits in terms of flexibility, the data does not lie: the selected EVs are the more long-term cost-effective option for NCR driving during any time of year. Noteworthy as well is that the cost gap has even dramatically increased over time, with our regression analysis suggesting that this clear gap will persist even into the near future. Beyond the benefits which R.A. No. 11697, these results are evidence that electric vehicles are more efficient even in a policy vacuum — meaning that as incentives expire, benefits will not necessarily dwindle with time.

Our hypothesis testing further clarifies that gas and electricity prices only significantly differ over yearly intervals, alluding to rising prices from year to year. While these price differences may be influenced by global events on a yearly timescale, it is concretely revealed that price differences depending on certain months or seasons of the year are not meaningful enough. Practically, this means that even with electricity price increases during the summer months, EVs would still be more cost effective.

Call to Action

As initially mentioned, EVs were once perceived to be a luxury, typically reserved for progressives within first world countries who could afford their premium price tag. However, as electric vehicles become more accessible, it is now apparent that we are approaching a point where lowering our carbon footprint and contributing to energy sustainability no longer entails some form of personal sacrifice in service of a greater communal good. This study suggests that it is now simply logical from even a personal standpoint to participate in the shift to electric vehicles, as we stand to economically benefit not only from the policy-based incentives, but from the simple math of supply and demand. It is now a better time than ever to purchase your first electric vehicle, backed both by short-term policy benefits and long-term economic savings, as well as the peace of mind in knowing you are helping build a better and more secure environment for tomorrow.

Meet the Team